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Čadca vs Žarnovica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Čadca
Čadca
CANC
15:30
Žarnovica
Žarnovica
6/5/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 26Štadión Čadca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Čadca52%
×Draw20%
Žarnovica27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čadca
2.27
Žarnovica
1.61

Čadca creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Čadca
1.41
Žarnovica
1.04

allows per match

Čadca
2.18
Žarnovica
3.13

finishing

Čadca+0.00on par
Žarnovica+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čadca ↓

Žarnovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Čadca or draw
73%
Čadca or Žarnovica
80%
Draw or Žarnovica
48%

Winning margin

Čadca wins by 2+
32%
Žarnovica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Čadca 1+ goals
90%
Čadca 2+ goals
66%
Čadca 3+ goals
39%
Žarnovica 1+ goals
80%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
48%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Čadca (draw refunded)
66%
Žarnovica (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čadca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.18 · 22 matches

Žarnovica away — creates 1.04, concedes 3.13 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čadca attack 1.41 + Žarnovica defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.27

Žarnovica attack 1.04 + Čadca defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Čadca scores more
52%
level
20%
Žarnovica scores more
27%

Čadca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Čadca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Čadca host Žarnovica

June 5, 2021: Čadca take on Žarnovica in 3. liga - Center. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Čadca host Žarnovica at Štadión Čadca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.