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Zarkovo vs Sloga Kraljevo — Prva Liga 2018

Zarkovo
Zarkovo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloga Kraljevo
Sloga Kraljevo
3/13/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 21Stadion Žarkovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zarkovo60%
×Draw25%
Sloga Kraljevo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zarkovo
1.61
Sloga Kraljevo
0.67

Zarkovo creates 140% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 17 away

creates per match

Zarkovo
1.10
Sloga Kraljevo
0.41

allows per match

Zarkovo
0.93
Sloga Kraljevo
2.12

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par
Sloga Kraljevo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

Sloga Kraljevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw
85%
Zarkovo or Sloga Kraljevo
75%
Draw or Sloga Kraljevo
40%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+
33%
Sloga Kraljevo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals
80%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
48%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
22%
Sloga Kraljevo 1+ goals
49%
Sloga Kraljevo 2+ goals
15%
Sloga Kraljevo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)
80%
Sloga Kraljevo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

Sloga Kraljevo away — creates 0.41, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Sloga Kraljevo defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sloga Kraljevo attack 0.41 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zarkovo scores more
60%
level
25%
Sloga Kraljevo scores more
15%

Zarkovo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Zarkovo 2–0 Sloga Kraljevo

Zarkovo beat Sloga Kraljevo 2-0 in Prva Liga on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Žarkovo in Beograd.