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Sloga Kraljevo vs Zarkovo — Prva Liga 2018

Sloga Kraljevo
Sloga Kraljevo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zarkovo
Zarkovo
9/6/2020Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 4Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sloga Kraljevo38%
×Draw29%
Zarkovo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloga Kraljevo
1.16
Zarkovo
1.05

Sloga Kraljevo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Sloga Kraljevo
1.00
Zarkovo
1.10

allows per match

Sloga Kraljevo
1.00
Zarkovo
1.32

finishing

Sloga Kraljevo+0.00on par
Zarkovo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloga Kraljevo ↓

Zarkovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sloga Kraljevo or draw
67%
Sloga Kraljevo or Zarkovo
71%
Draw or Zarkovo
62%

Winning margin

Sloga Kraljevo wins by 2+
16%
Zarkovo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sloga Kraljevo 1+ goals
69%
Sloga Kraljevo 2+ goals
32%
Sloga Kraljevo 3+ goals
11%
Zarkovo 1+ goals
65%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
28%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sloga Kraljevo (draw refunded)
54%
Zarkovo (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloga Kraljevo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Zarkovo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloga Kraljevo attack 1.00 + Zarkovo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Sloga Kraljevo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sloga Kraljevo scores more
38%
level
29%
Zarkovo scores more
33%

Sloga Kraljevo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sloga Kraljevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Sloga Kraljevo 1–2 Zarkovo

Zarkovo beat Sloga Kraljevo 2-1 in Prva Liga on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Kraljevo.