Zarkovo 0–0 Novi Pazar: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Zarkovo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Novi Pazar

8/14/2019

Prva Liga · Round 3Stadion Žarkovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zarkovo53%

×Draw27%

Novi Pazar19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZarkovoExpected goals in this matchNovi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.73

Zarkovo

1.42

Novi Pazar

0.73

Zarkovo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.10

creates per match

0.53

0.93

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Zarkovo

1.10

Novi Pazar

0.53

allows per match

Zarkovo

0.93

Novi Pazar

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

Novi Pazar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw

81%

Zarkovo or Novi Pazar

73%

Draw or Novi Pazar

47%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+

27%

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals

76%

Zarkovo 2+ goals

41%

Zarkovo 3+ goals

17%

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

52%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

17%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)

74%

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Novi Pazar defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.42

Novi Pazar attack 0.53 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zarkovo scores more

53%

level

27%

Novi Pazar scores more

19%

Zarkovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff