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Novi Pazar vs Zarkovo — Prva Liga 2018

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
3 – 0
Zarkovo
Zarkovo
5/1/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Relegation Round - 6Gradski Stadion (Novi Pazar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Novi Pazar41%
×Draw28%
Zarkovo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.29
Zarkovo
1.08

Novi Pazar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 69 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.27
Zarkovo
1.10

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.06
Zarkovo
1.32

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Zarkovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Zarkovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
69%
Novi Pazar or Zarkovo
72%
Draw or Zarkovo
59%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
19%
Zarkovo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
72%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
37%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
14%
Zarkovo 1+ goals
66%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
29%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
57%
Zarkovo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

Zarkovo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.27 + Zarkovo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Novi Pazar defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
41%
level
28%
Zarkovo scores more
31%

Novi Pazar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novi Pazar vs Zarkovo

Novi Pazar beat Zarkovo 3-0 in Prva Liga on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion (Novi Pazar).