Zarkovo 1–0 Loznica: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Zarkovo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Loznica

8/22/2021

Prva Liga · Round 3Stadion Žarkovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Zarkovo42%

×Draw31%

Loznica27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZarkovoExpected goals in this matchLoznica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.85

Zarkovo

1.13

Loznica

0.85

Zarkovo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 73 away

1.10

creates per match

0.78

0.93

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Zarkovo

1.10

Loznica

0.78

allows per match

Zarkovo

0.93

Loznica

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par

Loznica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

Loznica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw

73%

Zarkovo or Loznica

69%

Draw or Loznica

58%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+

18%

Loznica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals

68%

Zarkovo 2+ goals

31%

Zarkovo 3+ goals

11%

Loznica 1+ goals

57%

Loznica 2+ goals

21%

Loznica 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)

61%

Loznica (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

Loznica away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Loznica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Loznica attack 0.78 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zarkovo scores more

42%

level

31%

Loznica scores more

27%

Zarkovo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff