Loznica 0–1 Zarkovo: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Loznica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zarkovo

11/15/2021

Prva Liga · Round 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Loznica45%

×Draw26%

Zarkovo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoznicaExpected goals in this matchZarkovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

Loznica

1.43

Zarkovo

1.08

Loznica creates 32% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

1.54

creates per match

1.10

1.07

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Loznica

1.54

Zarkovo

1.10

allows per match

Loznica

1.07

Zarkovo

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loznica+0.00on par

Zarkovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loznica ↓

Zarkovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Loznica or draw

71%

Loznica or Zarkovo

74%

Draw or Zarkovo

55%

Winning margin

Loznica wins by 2+

22%

Zarkovo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Loznica 1+ goals

76%

Loznica 2+ goals

42%

Loznica 3+ goals

17%

Zarkovo 1+ goals

66%

Zarkovo 2+ goals

29%

Zarkovo 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Loznica (draw refunded)

61%

Zarkovo (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loznica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

Zarkovo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loznica attack 1.54 + Zarkovo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Loznica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Loznica scores more

45%

level

26%

Zarkovo scores more

29%

Loznica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff