Zaria Balti 2–1 Grănicerul: Result & Stats | Cupa

Zaria Balti

2 – 1

Grănicerul

8/24/2021

Cupa · 1st RoundTeren de Fotbal Popovca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zaria Balti38%

×Draw24%

Grănicerul38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaria BaltiExpected goals in this matchGrănicerul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

Zaria Balti

1.54

Grănicerul

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Zaria Balti

1.75

Grănicerul

1.33

allows per match

Zaria Balti

1.75

Grănicerul

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaria Balti+0.00on par

Grănicerul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaria Balti ↓

Grănicerul →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zaria Balti or draw

62%

Zaria Balti or Grănicerul

76%

Draw or Grănicerul

62%

Winning margin

Zaria Balti wins by 2+

18%

Grănicerul wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zaria Balti 1+ goals

79%

Zaria Balti 2+ goals

45%

Zaria Balti 3+ goals

20%

Grănicerul 1+ goals

79%

Grănicerul 2+ goals

45%

Grănicerul 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zaria Balti (draw refunded)

50%

Grănicerul (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zaria Balti at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Grănicerul away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zaria Balti attack 1.75 + Grănicerul defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Grănicerul attack 1.33 + Zaria Balti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaria Balti scores more

38%

level

24%

Grănicerul scores more

38%

Zaria Balti at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zaria Balti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff