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Grănicerul vs Zaria Balti — League #395 2026

Grănicerul
Grănicerul
FT
4 – 3
Zaria Balti
Zaria Balti
6/30/2019League #395League #395 · Round 9Stadionul Glodeni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Grănicerul49%
×Draw19%
Zaria Balti33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grănicerul
2.75
Zaria Balti
2.25

Grănicerul creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Grănicerul
1.50
Zaria Balti
3.00

allows per match

Grănicerul
1.50
Zaria Balti
4.00

finishing

Grănicerul+0.00on par
Zaria Balti+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grănicerul ↓

Zaria Balti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Grănicerul or draw
67%
Grănicerul or Zaria Balti
81%
Draw or Zaria Balti
51%

Winning margin

Grănicerul wins by 2+
31%
Zaria Balti wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Grănicerul 1+ goals
93%
Grănicerul 2+ goals
75%
Grănicerul 3+ goals
51%
Zaria Balti 1+ goals
89%
Zaria Balti 2+ goals
65%
Zaria Balti 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Grănicerul (draw refunded)
60%
Zaria Balti (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grănicerul at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Zaria Balti away — creates 3.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grănicerul attack 1.50 + Zaria Balti defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Zaria Balti attack 3.00 + Grănicerul defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Grănicerul scores more
49%
level
19%
Zaria Balti scores more
33%

Grănicerul at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Grănicerul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grănicerul vs Zaria Balti

Grănicerul beat Zaria Balti 4-3 in League #395 on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Glodeni in Glodeni.