Recreativo da Caála 2–0 Nacional de Benguela

Recreativo da Caála

FT

2 – 0

Nacional de Benguela

4/8/2012

Girabola · Round 6Estádio dos Kuricutelas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Recreativo da Caála57%

×Draw32%

Nacional de Benguela11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo da CaálaExpected goals in this matchNacional de Benguela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.35

Recreativo da Caála

1.17

Nacional de Benguela

0.35

Recreativo da Caála creates 234% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 7 away

1.19

creates per match

0.29

0.41

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Recreativo da Caála

1.19

Nacional de Benguela

0.29

allows per match

Recreativo da Caála

0.41

Nacional de Benguela

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No80
Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo da Caála ↓

Nacional de Benguela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–18%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–026%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (26%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

45%55%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Recreativo da Caála or draw

89%

Recreativo da Caála or Nacional de Benguela

68%

Draw or Nacional de Benguela

43%

Winning margin

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+

26%

Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals

69%

Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals

33%

Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals

11%

Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals

30%

Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals

5%

Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)

84%

Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

11%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo da Caála at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.41 · 54 matches

Nacional de Benguela away — creates 0.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo da Caála attack 1.19 + Nacional de Benguela defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nacional de Benguela attack 0.29 + Recreativo da Caála defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Recreativo da Caála scores more

57%

level

32%

Nacional de Benguela scores more

11%

Recreativo da Caála at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Recreativo da Caála will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff