Nacional de Benguela 1–0 Recreativo da Caála

Nacional de Benguela

FT

1 – 0

Recreativo da Caála

8/11/2012

Girabola · Round 21Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nacional de Benguela46%

×Draw28%

Recreativo da Caála26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nacional de BenguelaExpected goals in this matchRecreativo da Caála

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.94

Nacional de Benguela

1.34

Recreativo da Caála

0.94

Nacional de Benguela creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 55 away

1.40

creates per match

0.69

1.20

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Nacional de Benguela

1.40

Recreativo da Caála

0.69

allows per match

Nacional de Benguela

1.20

Recreativo da Caála

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nacional de Benguela+0.00on par

Recreativo da Caála+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nacional de Benguela ↓

Recreativo da Caála →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nacional de Benguela or draw

74%

Nacional de Benguela or Recreativo da Caála

72%

Draw or Recreativo da Caála

54%

Winning margin

Nacional de Benguela wins by 2+

22%

Recreativo da Caála wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nacional de Benguela 1+ goals

74%

Nacional de Benguela 2+ goals

39%

Nacional de Benguela 3+ goals

15%

Recreativo da Caála 1+ goals

61%

Recreativo da Caála 2+ goals

24%

Recreativo da Caála 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nacional de Benguela (draw refunded)

64%

Recreativo da Caála (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nacional de Benguela at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Recreativo da Caála away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nacional de Benguela attack 1.40 + Recreativo da Caála defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Recreativo da Caála attack 0.69 + Nacional de Benguela defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nacional de Benguela scores more

46%

level

28%

Recreativo da Caála scores more

26%

Nacional de Benguela at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nacional de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff