Zaragoza 1–1 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

P. Akouokou 88'

G. Carrera 74'

1/17/2026

Segunda División · Round 22Ibercaja Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Zaragoza50%

×Draw22%

Real Sociedad II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.40

Zaragoza

1.92

Real Sociedad II

1.40

Zaragoza creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.76

creates per match

1.51

1.28

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.76

Real Sociedad II

1.51

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.28

Real Sociedad II

2.07

-0.96scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Zaragoza-0.96scores less

Real Sociedad II-0.07on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

72%

Zaragoza or Real Sociedad II

78%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

50%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

28%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

85%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

57%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

30%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

75%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

41%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

64%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.07 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.76 + Real Sociedad II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Real Sociedad II attack 1.51 + Zaragoza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zaragoza scores more

50%

level

22%

Real Sociedad II scores more

28%

Zaragoza at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

P. Akouokou

Zaragoza · M

7.6

Match Events

32'

Mikel Rodriguez

35'

Gorka Carrera Zarranz

45'

Ale Gomes

55'

P. Akouokou← K. Bare

56'

Valery← M. A. Cuenca

59'

G. Gorosabel← D. Diaz

69'

Tachi← Y. Saidu

69'

S. Bakis← T. Moya

72'

J. Eceizabarrena← I. Aguirre

74'

G. Carrera↳ G. Gorosabel

82'

F. Moyano← A. Gomes

85'

J. Oleaga← L. Astiazaran

86'

P. Rodriguez← M. Rodriguez

88'

P. Akouokou↳ D. Tasende

90+2'

Dani Tasende

90'

Pablo Insua

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaReal

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots27

3Corners4

8Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots27

1On Target7

6Off Target12

9Blocked8

11Inside Box16

5Outside Box11

Passing

57%Possession43%

467Total Passes350

376Accurate Passes277

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1