Real Sociedad II 1–2 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Zaragoza

Ander Martín 66'

V. Vada 41'

Ivan Azón 1'

5/27/2022

Segunda División · Round 42Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Real Sociedad II36%

×Draw28%

Zaragoza36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

Real Sociedad II

1.21

Zaragoza

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 172 away

1.14

creates per match

1.01

1.40

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.14

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.40

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

64%

Real Sociedad II or Zaragoza

72%

Draw or Zaragoza

64%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

15%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

70%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

34%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

12%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

70%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

34%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

50%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 42 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.14 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

36%

level

28%

Zaragoza scores more

36%

Real Sociedad II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Ander Martín

Real Sociedad II · D

7.7

Match Events

1'

Ivan Azón↳ Sergio Bermejo

10'

Aritz Aldasoro

41'

V. Vada↳ Fran Gámez

46'

Olasagasti← Roberto López

46'

P. Pokorný← Aritz Aldasoro

46'

J. Narváez← Sabin Merino

57'

Daniel Garrido← Sangalli

61'

Dani Lasure← Pep Chavarría

63'

Robert Navarro← Jon Karrikaburu

66'

Ander Martín↳ Olasagasti

69'

Álvaro Giménez← Ivan Azón

70'

Eugeni Valderrama← V. Vada

79'

J. Blasco← Enrique Clemente

82'

Álex Sola

89'

Alberto Zapater← R. Petrović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealZaragoza

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots15

11Corners2

13Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target6

2Off Target8

4Blocked1

6Inside Box13

4Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

549Total Passes404

477Accurate Passes347

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides4