Zaragoza 2–3 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Racing Santander

Mario Soberón 66'

Dani Tasende 57'

Aritz Aldasoro 71'

Iñigo Vicente 40'

Pablo Rodríguez 33'

10/5/2024

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Zaragoza53%

×Draw23%

Racing Santander23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.11

Zaragoza

1.80

Racing Santander

1.11

Zaragoza creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.76

creates per match

0.95

1.28

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.76

Racing Santander

0.95

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.28

Racing Santander

1.84

-0.96scores less than expected

finishing

+0.88scores more than expected

finishing

Zaragoza-0.96scores less

Racing Santander+0.88scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

77%

Zaragoza or Racing Santander

77%

Draw or Racing Santander

47%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

30%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

83%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

54%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

27%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

67%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

30%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

70%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.28 · 5 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.76 + Racing Santander defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.80

Racing Santander attack 0.95 + Zaragoza defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zaragoza scores more

53%

level

23%

Racing Santander scores more

23%

Zaragoza at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Andrés Martín

Racing Santander · M

8.9

Match Events

3'

Manu Hernando

5'

Francho Serrano

15'

Bernardo Vital

33'

Pablo Rodríguez↳ Andrés Martín

34'

Pablo RodríguezGoal confirmed

40'

Iñigo Vicente↳ Andrés Martín

41'

45+2'

51'

51'

55'

Íñigo Sainz-Maza← Andrés Martín

55'

Javi Castro← Pablo Rodríguez

55'

S. Camara← Iñigo Vicente

57'

Dani Tasende

63'

Jokin Ezkieta

66'

Mario Soberón↳ Dani Tasende

71'

Aritz Aldasoro

73'

Iván Azón← S. Baždar

73'

Ekain Zenitagoia← Juan Carlos Arana

79'

Alberto Marí← Mario Soberón

79'

Pau Sans← Francho Serrano

81'

Pol Moreno← C. Michelin

84'

Toni Moya

90+10'

Ager AketxeMissed penalty

90+8'

Francisco Montero

90+3'

Marcos Luna← Iván Calero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaRacing

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots14

11Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots14

8On Target6

8Off Target6

2Blocked2

8Inside Box9

10Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

455Total Passes304

370Accurate Passes220

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2