Racing Santander 2–3 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Racing Santander

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Zaragoza

M. Lozano 90'

G. Puerta 82'

K. Kodro 54', 21', 4'

1/10/2026

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Racing Santander47%

×Draw26%

Zaragoza27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Racing Santander

1.48

Zaragoza

1.06

Racing Santander creates 40% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 172 away

1.67

creates per match

1.01

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.67

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Racing Santander

1.11

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

73%

Racing Santander or Zaragoza

74%

Draw or Zaragoza

53%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

23%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

77%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

43%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

19%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

65%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

29%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

63%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Racing Santander scores more

47%

level

26%

Zaragoza scores more

27%

Racing Santander at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

K. Kodro

Zaragoza · F

9.7

Match Events

4'

K. Kodro

21'

K. Kodro↳ Francho

46'

46'

46'

54'

54'

59'

59'

65'

D. Rodriguez← P. Canales

65'

A. Radovanovic← P. Insua

65'

S. Bakis← K. Kodro

69'

J. Sebastian← A. Gomes

72'

Marco Sangalli

77'

C. Pomares← D. Tasende

80'

M. Garcia← A. Mantilla

80'

D. Fuentes← A. Martin

82'

G. Puerta↳ J. Salinas

86'

90+2'

90+4'

90+1'

90'

M. Lozano↳ D. Fuentes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingZaragoza

Overview

71%Possession29%

24Total Shots9

13Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots9

6On Target8

10Off Target0

8Blocked1

15Inside Box7

9Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

584Total Passes250

500Accurate Passes185

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

5Offsides8