Zaragoza 0–2 Malaga: Result & Stats

Zaragoza

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Malaga

Chupe 76' (pen), 34'

5/31/2026

Segunda División · Round 42Ibercaja Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Zaragoza39%

×Draw30%

Malaga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaragozaExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.00

Zaragoza

1.14

Malaga

1.00

Zaragoza creates 14% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 150 away

1.08

creates per match

0.95

1.05

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Zaragoza

1.08

Malaga

0.95

allows per match

Zaragoza

1.05

Malaga

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw

68%

Zaragoza or Malaga

70%

Draw or Malaga

61%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+

16%

Malaga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals

68%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

32%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

11%

Malaga 1+ goals

63%

Malaga 2+ goals

26%

Malaga 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

55%

Malaga (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 169 matches

Malaga away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.20 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Malaga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.14

Malaga attack 0.95 + Zaragoza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zaragoza scores more

39%

level

30%

Malaga scores more

32%

Zaragoza at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zaragoza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Puga

Malaga · D

7.7

Match Events

34'

Chupe

38'

C. Pomares← A. Radovanovic

46'

Obon← A. Rodriguez

54'

Marcos Cuenca

56'

H. Pinilla← N. Cumic

56'

D. Tasende← J. Larios

61'

66'

67'

70'

70'

R. Rodriguez← I. Merino

75'

Adrián NiñoPenalty confirmed

76'

ChupePenalty

83'

V. Garcia← D. Larrubia

83'

R. Enriquez← C. Puga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaragozaMalaga

Overview

43%Possession57%

5Total Shots17

0.40Expected Goals (xG)3.38

3Corners6

11Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots17

2On Target7

2Off Target6

1Blocked4

1Inside Box14

4Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

366Total Passes489

301Accurate Passes429

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1