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Malaga vs Zaragoza — Segunda División 2018

Malaga
Malaga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaragoza
Zaragoza
2/20/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 28Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

Malaga42%
×Draw29%
Zaragoza29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malaga
1.23
Zaragoza
0.96

Malaga creates 28% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 169 away

creates per match

Malaga
1.17
Zaragoza
1.01

allows per match

Malaga
0.91
Zaragoza
1.30

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par
Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Zaragoza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Malaga or draw
71%
Malaga or Zaragoza
71%
Draw or Zaragoza
58%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+
19%
Zaragoza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals
71%
Malaga 2+ goals
35%
Malaga 3+ goals
13%
Zaragoza 1+ goals
62%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
25%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)
60%
Zaragoza (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Zaragoza defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Malaga scores more
42%
level
29%
Zaragoza scores more
29%

Malaga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malaga vs Zaragoza

Malaga beat Zaragoza 3-0 in Segunda División on February 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.