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Zaragoza vs Espanyol — Segunda División 2018

Zaragoza
Zaragoza
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Espanyol
Espanyol
3/17/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 31Estadio de la Romareda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Zaragoza32%
×Draw30%
Espanyol38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaragoza
0.99
Espanyol
1.10

Espanyol creates 11% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 44 away

creates per match

Zaragoza
1.08
Espanyol
1.16

allows per match

Zaragoza
1.05
Espanyol
0.89

finishing

Zaragoza+0.00on par
Espanyol+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaragoza ↓

Espanyol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zaragoza or draw
62%
Zaragoza or Espanyol
70%
Draw or Espanyol
68%

Winning margin

Zaragoza wins by 2+
12%
Espanyol wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zaragoza 1+ goals
63%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
26%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
8%
Espanyol 1+ goals
67%
Espanyol 2+ goals
30%
Espanyol 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zaragoza (draw refunded)
46%
Espanyol (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaragoza at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.05 · 169 matches

Espanyol away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaragoza attack 1.08 + Espanyol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Espanyol attack 1.16 + Zaragoza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaragoza scores more
32%
level
30%
Espanyol scores more
38%

Espanyol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Zaragoza 0–1 Espanyol

Espanyol beat Zaragoza 1-0 in Segunda División on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Romareda in Zaragoza.