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Espanyol vs Zaragoza — Segunda División 2018

Espanyol
Espanyol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zaragoza
Zaragoza
11/29/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Espanyol55%
×Draw25%
Zaragoza20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espanyol
1.58
Zaragoza
0.84

Espanyol creates 88% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 169 away

creates per match

Espanyol
1.86
Zaragoza
1.01

allows per match

Espanyol
0.68
Zaragoza
1.30

finishing

Espanyol+0.00on par
Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espanyol ↓

Zaragoza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Espanyol or draw
80%
Espanyol or Zaragoza
75%
Draw or Zaragoza
45%

Winning margin

Espanyol wins by 2+
29%
Zaragoza wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Espanyol 1+ goals
79%
Espanyol 2+ goals
47%
Espanyol 3+ goals
21%
Zaragoza 1+ goals
57%
Zaragoza 2+ goals
21%
Zaragoza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Espanyol (draw refunded)
73%
Zaragoza (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espanyol at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 44 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espanyol attack 1.86 + Zaragoza defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Espanyol defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Espanyol scores more
55%
level
25%
Zaragoza scores more
20%

Espanyol at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Espanyol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Espanyol 2–0 Zaragoza

Espanyol beat Zaragoza 2-0 in Segunda División on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.