Zaqatala 1–1 Difai Ağsu: Result & Stats

Zaqatala

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Difai Ağsu

2/14/2025

Birinci Dasta · Round 14Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Zaqatala53%

×Draw23%

Difai Ağsu24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaqatalaExpected goals in this matchDifai Ağsu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.15

Zaqatala

1.84

Difai Ağsu

1.15

Zaqatala creates 60% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 40 away

1.71

creates per match

1.15

1.16

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Zaqatala

1.71

Difai Ağsu

1.15

allows per match

Zaqatala

1.16

Difai Ağsu

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaqatala+0.00on par

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaqatala ↓

Difai Ağsu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zaqatala or draw

76%

Zaqatala or Difai Ağsu

77%

Draw or Difai Ağsu

47%

Winning margin

Zaqatala wins by 2+

30%

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Zaqatala 1+ goals

84%

Zaqatala 2+ goals

55%

Zaqatala 3+ goals

28%

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals

68%

Difai Ağsu 2+ goals

32%

Difai Ağsu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zaqatala (draw refunded)

69%

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaqatala at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.16 · 87 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaqatala attack 1.71 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.84

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + Zaqatala defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zaqatala scores more

53%

level

23%

Difai Ağsu scores more

24%

Zaqatala at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zaqatala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff