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Difai Ağsu vs Zaqatala — Birinci Dasta 2019

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
4/17/2025Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 22Şamaxı OİK stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Difai Ağsu35%
×Draw24%
Zaqatala41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difai Ağsu
1.41
Zaqatala
1.56

Zaqatala creates 11% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 90 away

creates per match

Difai Ağsu
1.24
Zaqatala
1.27

allows per match

Difai Ağsu
1.85
Zaqatala
1.57

finishing

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par
Zaqatala+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difai Ağsu ↓

Zaqatala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Difai Ağsu or draw
59%
Difai Ağsu or Zaqatala
76%
Draw or Zaqatala
65%

Winning margin

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
16%
Zaqatala wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
76%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
41%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
17%
Zaqatala 1+ goals
79%
Zaqatala 2+ goals
46%
Zaqatala 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
46%
Zaqatala (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difai Ağsu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

Zaqatala away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.57 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difai Ağsu attack 1.24 + Zaqatala defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Zaqatala attack 1.27 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Difai Ağsu scores more
35%
level
24%
Zaqatala scores more
41%

Zaqatala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zaqatala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difai Ağsu vs Zaqatala

Difai Ağsu beat Zaqatala 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Şamaxı OİK stadionu in Shamakhi.