Zaqatala 2–0 Araz Saatlı: Result & Stats

Zaqatala

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Araz Saatlı

4/18/2024

Birinci Dasta · Round 22Şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Zaqatala71%

×Draw16%

Araz Saatlı13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZaqatalaExpected goals in this matchAraz Saatlı

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.04

Zaqatala

2.67

Araz Saatlı

1.04

Zaqatala creates 157% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

0.92

1.16

allows per match

3.62

creates per match

Zaqatala

1.71

Araz Saatlı

0.92

allows per match

Zaqatala

1.16

Araz Saatlı

3.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaqatala+0.00on par

Araz Saatlı+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaqatala ↓

Araz Saatlı →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Zaqatala or draw

87%

Zaqatala or Araz Saatlı

84%

Draw or Araz Saatlı

29%

Winning margin

Zaqatala wins by 2+

50%

Araz Saatlı wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zaqatala 1+ goals

93%

Zaqatala 2+ goals

74%

Zaqatala 3+ goals

49%

Araz Saatlı 1+ goals

65%

Araz Saatlı 2+ goals

28%

Araz Saatlı 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Zaqatala (draw refunded)

85%

Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaqatala at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.16 · 87 matches

Araz Saatlı away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaqatala attack 1.71 + Araz Saatlı defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 2.67

Araz Saatlı attack 0.92 + Zaqatala defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Zaqatala scores more

71%

level

16%

Araz Saatlı scores more

13%

Zaqatala at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Zaqatala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff