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Araz Saatlı vs Zaqatala — Birinci Dasta 2019

Araz Saatlı
Araz Saatlı
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
2/15/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 14Saatli Rayon Olimpiya Idman Kompleksi Stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Araz Saatlı29%
×Draw23%
Zaqatala48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Araz Saatlı
1.35
Zaqatala
1.81

Zaqatala creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 90 away

creates per match

Araz Saatlı
1.14
Zaqatala
1.27

allows per match

Araz Saatlı
2.36
Zaqatala
1.57

finishing

Araz Saatlı+0.00on par
Zaqatala+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Araz Saatlı ↓

Zaqatala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Araz Saatlı or draw
52%
Araz Saatlı or Zaqatala
77%
Draw or Zaqatala
71%

Winning margin

Araz Saatlı wins by 2+
12%
Zaqatala wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Araz Saatlı 1+ goals
74%
Araz Saatlı 2+ goals
39%
Araz Saatlı 3+ goals
15%
Zaqatala 1+ goals
84%
Zaqatala 2+ goals
54%
Zaqatala 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Araz Saatlı (draw refunded)
37%
Zaqatala (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Araz Saatlı at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

Zaqatala away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.57 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Araz Saatlı attack 1.14 + Zaqatala defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Zaqatala attack 1.27 + Araz Saatlı defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Araz Saatlı scores more
29%
level
23%
Zaqatala scores more
48%

Zaqatala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zaqatala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Araz Saatlı 1–1 Zaqatala

Araz Saatlı and Zaqatala drew 1-1 in Birinci Dasta on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Saatli Rayon Olimpiya Idman Kompleksi Stadionu in Saatli.