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Zanaco vs Nkwazi — Super League 2019

Zanaco
Zanaco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nkwazi
Nkwazi
3/9/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 24Sunset Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Zanaco42%
×Draw30%
Nkwazi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zanaco
1.14
Nkwazi
0.86

Zanaco creates 33% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 111 away

creates per match

Zanaco
1.35
Nkwazi
0.82

allows per match

Zanaco
0.91
Nkwazi
0.93

finishing

Zanaco+0.00on par
Nkwazi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zanaco ↓

Nkwazi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Zanaco or draw
73%
Zanaco or Nkwazi
70%
Draw or Nkwazi
58%

Winning margin

Zanaco wins by 2+
18%
Nkwazi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zanaco 1+ goals
68%
Zanaco 2+ goals
32%
Zanaco 3+ goals
11%
Nkwazi 1+ goals
58%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
21%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zanaco (draw refunded)
60%
Nkwazi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zanaco at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.91 · 112 matches

Nkwazi away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zanaco attack 1.35 + Nkwazi defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nkwazi attack 0.82 + Zanaco defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zanaco scores more
42%
level
30%
Nkwazi scores more
27%

Zanaco at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zanaco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zanaco 1 – 1 Nkwazi

Zanaco and Nkwazi drew 1-1 in Super League on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sunset Stadium in Lusaka.