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Nkwazi vs Zanaco — Super League 2019

Nkwazi
Nkwazi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zanaco
Zanaco
11/23/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Nkwazi38%
×Draw33%
Zanaco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nkwazi
0.99
Zanaco
0.83

Nkwazi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

creates per match

Nkwazi
0.85
Zanaco
0.85

allows per match

Nkwazi
0.82
Zanaco
1.14

finishing

Nkwazi+0.00on par
Zanaco+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nkwazi ↓

Zanaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nkwazi or draw
71%
Nkwazi or Zanaco
67%
Draw or Zanaco
62%

Winning margin

Nkwazi wins by 2+
14%
Zanaco wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nkwazi 1+ goals
63%
Nkwazi 2+ goals
26%
Nkwazi 3+ goals
8%
Zanaco 1+ goals
56%
Zanaco 2+ goals
20%
Zanaco 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nkwazi (draw refunded)
56%
Zanaco (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nkwazi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.82 · 110 matches

Zanaco away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.14 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nkwazi attack 0.85 + Zanaco defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Zanaco attack 0.85 + Nkwazi defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nkwazi scores more
38%
level
33%
Zanaco scores more
29%

Nkwazi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nkwazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nkwazi 0 – 0 Zanaco

Nkwazi and Zanaco drew 0-0 in Super League on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.