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Zamudio vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Zamudio
Zamudio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Estadio Udal Kiroldegia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Zamudio46%
×Draw24%
Real Sociedad III30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamudio
1.70
Real Sociedad III
1.33

Zamudio creates 28% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

creates per match

Zamudio
1.88
Real Sociedad III
1.66

allows per match

Zamudio
1.00
Real Sociedad III
1.52

finishing

Zamudio+0.00on par
Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamudio ↓

Real Sociedad III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zamudio or draw
70%
Zamudio or Real Sociedad III
76%
Draw or Real Sociedad III
54%

Winning margin

Zamudio wins by 2+
24%
Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zamudio 1+ goals
82%
Zamudio 2+ goals
51%
Zamudio 3+ goals
24%
Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
74%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
38%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zamudio (draw refunded)
61%
Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamudio at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamudio attack 1.88 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Zamudio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zamudio scores more
46%
level
24%
Real Sociedad III scores more
30%

Zamudio at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zamudio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Zamudio 1–1 Real Sociedad III

Zamudio and Real Sociedad III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Udal Kiroldegia in Zamudio.