Real Sociedad III 3–1 Zamudio: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad III

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Zamudio

4/16/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Campo José Luis Orbegozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Sociedad III67%

×Draw20%

Zamudio13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchZamudio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.76

Real Sociedad III

2.02

Zamudio

0.76

Real Sociedad III creates 166% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.59

0.93

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Zamudio

0.59

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Zamudio

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Zamudio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Zamudio →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

87%

Real Sociedad III or Zamudio

80%

Draw or Zamudio

33%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

42%

Zamudio wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

87%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

60%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

33%

Zamudio 1+ goals

53%

Zamudio 2+ goals

18%

Zamudio 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

84%

Zamudio (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Zamudio away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Zamudio defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

Zamudio attack 0.59 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

67%

level

20%

Zamudio scores more

13%

Real Sociedad III at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Zamudio

Real Sociedad III beat Zamudio 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 16, 2026.

The match was played at Campo José Luis Orbegozo in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad III vs Zamudio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Zamudio