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Zams vs SV Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Zams
Zams
CANC
00:00
SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
6/12/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 30Eurogast-Grissemann-Arena Zams

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zams32%
×Draw22%
SV Innsbruck46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zams
1.57
SV Innsbruck
1.90

SV Innsbruck creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zams
1.03
SV Innsbruck
1.70

allows per match

Zams
2.10
SV Innsbruck
2.11

finishing

Zams+0.00on par
SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zams ↓

SV Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zams or draw
54%
Zams or SV Innsbruck
78%
Draw or SV Innsbruck
68%

Winning margin

Zams wins by 2+
15%
SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Zams 1+ goals
79%
Zams 2+ goals
46%
Zams 3+ goals
21%
SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
85%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
56%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Zams (draw refunded)
41%
SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zams at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

SV Innsbruck away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zams attack 1.03 + SV Innsbruck defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.57

SV Innsbruck attack 1.70 + Zams defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zams scores more
32%
level
22%
SV Innsbruck scores more
46%

SV Innsbruck at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SV Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zams vs SV Innsbruck — Match Preview

Zams face SV Innsbruck on June 12, 2021 in this Landesliga - Tirol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zams host SV Innsbruck at Eurogast-Grissemann-Arena Zams.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.