SV Innsbruck 4–3 Zams: Result & Stats

SV Innsbruck

FT

4 – 3

Zams

10/26/2020

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 5Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SV Innsbruck63%

×Draw18%

Zams19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV InnsbruckExpected goals in this matchZams

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.38

SV Innsbruck

2.60

Zams

1.38

SV Innsbruck creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.90

creates per match

0.86

1.90

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

SV Innsbruck

1.90

Zams

0.86

allows per match

SV Innsbruck

1.90

Zams

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Innsbruck ↓

Zams →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

SV Innsbruck or draw

81%

SV Innsbruck or Zams

82%

Draw or Zams

37%

Winning margin

SV Innsbruck wins by 2+

42%

Zams wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

SV Innsbruck 1+ goals

92%

SV Innsbruck 2+ goals

73%

SV Innsbruck 3+ goals

47%

Zams 1+ goals

75%

Zams 2+ goals

40%

Zams 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)

77%

Zams (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Innsbruck at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Innsbruck attack 1.90 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.60

Zams attack 0.86 + SV Innsbruck defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

SV Innsbruck scores more

63%

level

18%

Zams scores more

19%

SV Innsbruck at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SV Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff