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Zams vs Fügen — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Zams
Zams
CANC
23:00
Fügen
Fügen
3/12/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 13Eurogast-Grissemann-Arena Zams

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zams28%
×Draw22%
Fügen50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zams
1.40
Fügen
1.94

Fügen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zams
1.03
Fügen
1.78

allows per match

Zams
2.10
Fügen
1.76

finishing

Zams+0.00on par
Fügen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zams ↓

Fügen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Zams or draw
50%
Zams or Fügen
78%
Draw or Fügen
72%

Winning margin

Zams wins by 2+
12%
Fügen wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Zams 1+ goals
75%
Zams 2+ goals
41%
Zams 3+ goals
17%
Fügen 1+ goals
86%
Fügen 2+ goals
58%
Fügen 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Zams (draw refunded)
36%
Fügen (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zams at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 29 matches

Fügen away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zams attack 1.03 + Fügen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fügen attack 1.78 + Zams defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zams scores more
28%
level
22%
Fügen scores more
50%

Fügen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fügen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zams face Fügen (Landesliga - Tirol)

Landesliga - Tirol returns with Zams hosting Fügen. Match starts March 12, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zams host Fügen at Eurogast-Grissemann-Arena Zams.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.