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Fügen vs Zams — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Fügen
Fügen
CANC
00:00
Zams
Zams
5/29/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 27Sportplatz Fügen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fügen72%
×Draw15%
Zams13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fügen
3.02
Zams
1.23

Fügen creates 146% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 29 away

creates per match

Fügen
2.73
Zams
0.86

allows per match

Fügen
1.59
Zams
3.31

finishing

Fügen+0.00on par
Zams+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fügen ↓

Zams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Fügen or draw
87%
Fügen or Zams
85%
Draw or Zams
28%

Winning margin

Fügen wins by 2+
53%
Zams wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Fügen 1+ goals
95%
Fügen 2+ goals
80%
Fügen 3+ goals
57%
Zams 1+ goals
71%
Zams 2+ goals
35%
Zams 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fügen (draw refunded)
85%
Zams (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fügen at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Zams away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fügen attack 2.73 + Zams defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 3.02

Zams attack 0.86 + Fügen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Fügen scores more
72%
level
15%
Zams scores more
13%

Fügen at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Fügen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fügen host Zams

May 29, 2021: Fügen take on Zams in Landesliga - Tirol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fügen host Zams at Sportplatz Fügen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.