Zamora 2–0 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Zamora

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Salamanca UDS

12/6/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Zamora42%

×Draw32%

Salamanca UDS25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZamoraExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.74

Zamora

1.05

Salamanca UDS

0.74

Zamora creates 42% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

0.54

0.93

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Zamora

1.18

Salamanca UDS

0.54

allows per match

Zamora

0.93

Salamanca UDS

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Zamora or draw

75%

Zamora or Salamanca UDS

68%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

58%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+

17%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals

65%

Zamora 2+ goals

28%

Zamora 3+ goals

9%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

52%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

17%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)

62%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 0.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Salamanca UDS attack 0.54 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zamora scores more

42%

level

32%

Salamanca UDS scores more

25%

Zamora at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff