Salamanca UDS 1–1 Zamora: Result & Stats

Salamanca UDS

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Zamora

Javi Navas 10'

Guille Perero 3'

3/7/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Salamanca UDS47%

×Draw26%

Zamora27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca UDSExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.06

Salamanca UDS

1.48

Zamora

1.06

Salamanca UDS creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 69 away

1.69

creates per match

1.04

1.08

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Salamanca UDS

1.69

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Salamanca UDS

1.08

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca UDS ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Salamanca UDS or draw

73%

Salamanca UDS or Zamora

74%

Draw or Zamora

53%

Winning margin

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

23%

Zamora wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

77%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

43%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

19%

Zamora 1+ goals

65%

Zamora 2+ goals

29%

Zamora 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

63%

Zamora (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salamanca UDS at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca UDS attack 1.69 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zamora attack 1.04 + Salamanca UDS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Salamanca UDS scores more

47%

level

26%

Zamora scores more

27%

Salamanca UDS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Guille Perero

10'

Javi Navas

15'

L. Sepúlveda← Iván Casado

19'

Dani Hernández Cabeza← Álvaro Coque

60'

Ángel Romero← N. Delmonte

60'

Jon Villanueva← Mapisa

63'

E. Ohemeng← Álex Camacho

81'

Nacho López← D. Chávez

81'

Uxío da Pena← Javi Navas

81'

Abel Conejo← Rodri

81'

Sergio García← Pedro Astray

Salamanca

Zamora

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Lolo Escobar

15'▲L. Sepúlveda←▼Iván Casado

63'▲E. Ohemeng←▼Álex Camacho

81'▲Nacho López←▼D. Chávez

81'▲Uxío da Pena←▼Javi Navas

Salamanca UDS substitutes

SepúlvedaOhemengLópezPenaSilvasMoraVictoriaTélles

Manager: David Movilla

19'▲Dani Hernández Cabeza←▼Álvaro Coque

60'▲Ángel Romero←▼N. Delmonte

60'▲Jon Villanueva←▼Mapisa

81'▲Abel Conejo←▼Rodri

81'▲Sergio García←▼Pedro Astray

Zamora substitutes

CabezaRomeroVillanuevaConejoGarcíaCosciaMateoZaim