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Zamora vs Pontevedra — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pontevedra
Pontevedra
11/8/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Zamora43%
×Draw28%
Pontevedra28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.27
Pontevedra
0.97

Zamora creates 31% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 65 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Pontevedra
1.00

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Pontevedra
1.35

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Pontevedra+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Pontevedra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
72%
Zamora or Pontevedra
72%
Draw or Pontevedra
57%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
19%
Pontevedra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
72%
Zamora 2+ goals
36%
Zamora 3+ goals
14%
Pontevedra 1+ goals
62%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
25%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
60%
Pontevedra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Pontevedra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Pontevedra defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Pontevedra attack 1.00 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zamora scores more
43%
level
28%
Pontevedra scores more
28%

Zamora at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamora vs Pontevedra

Zamora and Pontevedra drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.