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Pontevedra vs Zamora — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Zamora
Zamora
2/6/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Pontevedra43%
×Draw28%
Zamora29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.29
Zamora
0.99

Pontevedra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 69 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
Zamora
1.04

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
Zamora
1.28

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

Zamora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
71%
Pontevedra or Zamora
72%
Draw or Zamora
57%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
20%
Zamora wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
72%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
37%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
14%
Zamora 1+ goals
63%
Zamora 2+ goals
26%
Zamora 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
60%
Zamora (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zamora attack 1.04 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pontevedra scores more
43%
level
28%
Zamora scores more
29%

Pontevedra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontevedra vs Zamora

Zamora beat Pontevedra 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón in Pontevedra.