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Zamora vs Ourense CF — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Zamora
Zamora
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
12/7/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Zamora45%
×Draw30%
Ourense CF25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
1.22
Ourense CF
0.83

Zamora creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 38 away

creates per match

Zamora
1.18
Ourense CF
0.74

allows per match

Zamora
0.93
Ourense CF
1.26

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
75%
Zamora or Ourense CF
70%
Draw or Ourense CF
55%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
20%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
70%
Zamora 2+ goals
34%
Zamora 3+ goals
12%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
56%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
20%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
64%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 68 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 1.18 + Ourense CF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ourense CF attack 0.74 + Zamora defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zamora scores more
45%
level
30%
Ourense CF scores more
25%

Zamora at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamora vs Ourense CF

Zamora and Ourense CF drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.