Ourense CF 1–0 Zamora: Result & Stats

Ourense CF

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zamora

4/6/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF42%

×Draw28%

Zamora31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ourense CFExpected goals in this matchZamora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

Ourense CF

1.31

Zamora

1.08

Ourense CF creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 69 away

1.34

creates per match

1.04

1.13

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ourense CF

1.34

Zamora

1.04

allows per match

Ourense CF

1.13

Zamora

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par

Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Zamora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw

69%

Ourense CF or Zamora

72%

Draw or Zamora

58%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+

19%

Zamora wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals

73%

Ourense CF 2+ goals

38%

Ourense CF 3+ goals

14%

Zamora 1+ goals

66%

Zamora 2+ goals

29%

Zamora 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)

58%

Zamora (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Zamora defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Zamora attack 1.04 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ourense CF scores more

42%

level

28%

Zamora scores more

31%

Ourense CF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff