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Zamora vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Zamora
Zamora
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio Ruta de la Plata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zamora78%
×Draw15%
La Granja7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora
2.45
La Granja
0.59

Zamora creates 315% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 31 away

creates per match

Zamora
2.71
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Zamora
0.50
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Zamora+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zamora or draw
93%
Zamora or La Granja
85%
Draw or La Granja
22%

Winning margin

Zamora wins by 2+
55%
La Granja wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zamora 1+ goals
91%
Zamora 2+ goals
70%
Zamora 3+ goals
44%
La Granja 1+ goals
45%
La Granja 2+ goals
12%
La Granja 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Zamora (draw refunded)
92%
La Granja (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora attack 2.71 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.45

La Granja attack 0.68 + Zamora defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Zamora scores more
78%
level
15%
La Granja scores more
7%

Zamora at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zamora 6 – 0 La Granja

Zamora beat La Granja 6-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Ruta de la Plata in Zamora.