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La Granja vs Zamora — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Granja
La Granja
CANC
00:00
Zamora
Zamora
3/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

La Granja21%
×Draw25%
Zamora53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Granja
0.89
Zamora
1.56

Zamora creates 75% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

La Granja
1.20
Zamora
1.79

allows per match

La Granja
1.33
Zamora
0.57

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par
Zamora+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Zamora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

La Granja or draw
47%
La Granja or Zamora
75%
Draw or Zamora
79%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+
7%
Zamora wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals
59%
La Granja 2+ goals
22%
La Granja 3+ goals
6%
Zamora 1+ goals
79%
Zamora 2+ goals
46%
Zamora 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)
29%
Zamora (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Zamora away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Zamora defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.89

Zamora attack 1.79 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

La Granja scores more
21%
level
25%
Zamora scores more
53%

Zamora at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zamora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

La Granja vs Zamora — Match Preview

La Granja face Zamora on March 25, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

La Granja host Zamora at Campo de Fútbol El Hospital.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.