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Zamora FC vs Metropolitanos FC — Primera División 2018

Zamora FC
Zamora FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
8/7/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Zamora FC47%
×Draw26%
Metropolitanos FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora FC
1.45
Metropolitanos FC
1.02

Zamora FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 140 away

creates per match

Zamora FC
1.52
Metropolitanos FC
1.07

allows per match

Zamora FC
0.96
Metropolitanos FC
1.37

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw
73%
Zamora FC or Metropolitanos FC
74%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
53%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+
23%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals
77%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
42%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
18%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
64%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
27%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)
64%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 134 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 1.52 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Zamora FC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zamora FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
27%

Zamora FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zamora FC vs Metropolitanos FC

Metropolitanos FC beat Zamora FC 1-0 in Primera División on August 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.