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Metropolitanos FC vs Zamora FC — Primera División 2018

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zamora FC
Zamora FC
3/9/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Metropolitanos FC45%
×Draw27%
Zamora FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.42
Zamora FC
1.06

Metropolitanos FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 136 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.49
Zamora FC
1.03

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.10
Zamora FC
1.34

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Zamora FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Zamora FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
72%
Metropolitanos FC or Zamora FC
73%
Draw or Zamora FC
55%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
22%
Zamora FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
76%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
41%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
17%
Zamora FC 1+ goals
65%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
29%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
62%
Zamora FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Zamora FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Zamora FC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Zamora FC attack 1.03 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Zamora FC scores more
28%

Metropolitanos FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Zamora FC

Metropolitanos FC and Zamora FC drew 0-0 in Primera División on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.