Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zamora FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Copa Venezuela 2024

Zamora FC
Zamora FC
FT
1 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
6/6/2024Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Group Stage - 1Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zamora FC53%
×Draw23%
Fundación Lara Deportiva24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zamora FC
1.83
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.17

Zamora FC creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zamora FC
2.00
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.33

allows per match

Zamora FC
1.00
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.67

finishing

Zamora FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamora FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zamora FC or draw
76%
Zamora FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
77%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
47%

Winning margin

Zamora FC wins by 2+
30%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zamora FC 1+ goals
84%
Zamora FC 2+ goals
54%
Zamora FC 3+ goals
28%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
69%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
33%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zamora FC (draw refunded)
68%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamora FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamora FC attack 2.00 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.33 + Zamora FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zamora FC scores more
53%
level
23%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
24%

Zamora FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Zamora FC 1–0 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Zamora FC beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-0 in Copa Venezuela on June 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar in Barinas.