Fundación Lara Deportiva 1–1 Zamora FC

Fundación Lara Deportiva

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zamora FC

6/27/2024

Copa Venezuela · Group Stage - 4Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva33%

×Draw28%

Zamora FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundación Lara DeportivaExpected goals in this matchZamora FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.25

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.11

Zamora FC

1.25

Zamora FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

1.29

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.43

Zamora FC

1.20

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.29

Zamora FC

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Zamora FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Zamora FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw

61%

Fundación Lara Deportiva or Zamora FC

72%

Draw or Zamora FC

67%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

13%

Zamora FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

67%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

30%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

10%

Zamora FC 1+ goals

71%

Zamora FC 2+ goals

36%

Zamora FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

45%

Zamora FC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Zamora FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.43 + Zamora FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.11

Zamora FC attack 1.20 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

33%

level

28%

Zamora FC scores more

39%

Zamora FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zamora FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff