Zambia W 2–3 Malawi W: Result & Stats

Zambia W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Malawi W

2/25/2025

Friendlies Women · FriendliesREIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Zambia W60%

×Draw21%

Malawi W19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zambia WExpected goals in this matchMalawi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.09

Zambia W

2.09

Malawi W

1.09

Zambia W creates 92% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.73

creates per match

0.91

1.27

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Zambia W

1.73

Malawi W

0.91

allows per match

Zambia W

1.27

Malawi W

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zambia W+0.00on par

Malawi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zambia W ↓

Malawi W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Zambia W or draw

81%

Zambia W or Malawi W

79%

Draw or Malawi W

40%

Winning margin

Zambia W wins by 2+

37%

Malawi W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zambia W 1+ goals

88%

Zambia W 2+ goals

62%

Zambia W 3+ goals

34%

Malawi W 1+ goals

66%

Malawi W 2+ goals

30%

Malawi W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zambia W (draw refunded)

76%

Malawi W (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zambia W at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Malawi W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zambia W attack 1.73 + Malawi W defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.09

Malawi W attack 0.91 + Zambia W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zambia W scores more

60%

level

21%

Malawi W scores more

19%

Zambia W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zambia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff