Malawi W 1–1 Zambia W: Result & Stats

Malawi W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zambia W

11/30/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malawi W94%

×Draw4%

Zambia W2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Malawi WExpected goals in this matchZambia W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.14

0.81

Malawi W

5.14

Zambia W

0.81

Malawi W creates 535% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

8.20

creates per match

1.43

0.20

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

Malawi W

8.20

Zambia W

1.43

allows per match

Malawi W

0.20

Zambia W

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malawi W+0.00on par

Zambia W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malawi W ↓

Zambia W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–11%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

61%39%

Double chance

Malawi W or draw

98%

Malawi W or Zambia W

96%

Draw or Zambia W

6%

Winning margin

Malawi W wins by 2+

84%

Zambia W wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Malawi W 1+ goals

99%

Malawi W 2+ goals

95%

Malawi W 3+ goals

85%

Zambia W 1+ goals

56%

Zambia W 2+ goals

19%

Zambia W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Malawi W (draw refunded)

98%

Zambia W (draw refunded)

2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malawi W at home — creates 8.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Zambia W away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malawi W attack 8.20 + Zambia W defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 5.14

Zambia W attack 1.43 + Malawi W defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Malawi W scores more

94%

level

4%

Zambia W scores more

2%

Malawi W at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Malawi W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff