Zamalek SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla — Premier League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Zamalek SC44%
Ghazl El Mehalla27%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Zamalek SC creates 38% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Zamalek SC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches
Ghazl El Mehalla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Zamalek SC attack 1.30 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21
Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.94 + Zamalek SC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Zamalek SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Zamalek SC
Pyramids FC
Al Ahly
Wadi Degla
Masr
National Bank of Egypt
El Gouna FC
Petrojet
Ceramica Cleopatra
AL MasryGhazl El Mehalla
El Mokawloon
Future FC
El Geish
Enppi
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Smouha SC
Haras El Hodood
Pharco
Ismaily SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Zamalek SC host Ghazl El Mehalla on Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 14:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2025/2026 season.
Zamalek SC 1 – 1 Ghazl El Mehalla
Zamalek SC and Ghazl El Mehalla drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 4, 2025.
Goals: A. Rabie (39'), M. Salah (65').
Zamalek SC controlled possession (66%) and registered 24 shots to 3.
The match was played at Cairo International Stadium in Cairo.