Ghazl El Mehalla 2–1 Zamalek SC: Result & Stats

Ghazl El Mehalla

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Zamalek SC

Ahmed El Nadry 19'

G. Ibitham 4'

Zizo 62' (pen)

1/24/2023

Premier League · Round 15El Mahalla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ghazl El Mehalla25%

×Draw30%

Zamalek SC45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ghazl El MehallaExpected goals in this matchZamalek SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.21

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.81

Zamalek SC

1.21

Zamalek SC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 36 away

0.68

creates per match

1.69

0.72

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.68

Zamalek SC

1.69

allows per match

Ghazl El Mehalla

0.72

Zamalek SC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ghazl El Mehalla+0.00on par

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ghazl El Mehalla ↓

Zamalek SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ghazl El Mehalla or draw

55%

Ghazl El Mehalla or Zamalek SC

70%

Draw or Zamalek SC

75%

Winning margin

Ghazl El Mehalla wins by 2+

8%

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ghazl El Mehalla 1+ goals

56%

Ghazl El Mehalla 2+ goals

19%

Ghazl El Mehalla 3+ goals

5%

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

70%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

34%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ghazl El Mehalla (draw refunded)

35%

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ghazl El Mehalla at home — creates 0.68, concedes 0.72 · 25 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.94 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ghazl El Mehalla attack 0.68 + Zamalek SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.81

Zamalek SC attack 1.69 + Ghazl El Mehalla defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ghazl El Mehalla scores more

25%

level

30%

Zamalek SC scores more

45%

Zamalek SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

G. Ibitham↳ Ahmed El Nadry

19'

Ahmed El Nadry↳ Ahmed El Sheikh

36'

Nabil Emad Dunga← Mostafa El Zenary

59'

Mohamed Abdul Shafy← Omar Gaber

59'

Amr El Sisi← Mohamed Ashraf Roqa

62'

ZizoPenalty

64'

Ahmed Reda← Mahmoud El Katamy

65'

I. Kone← Mohamed Gaber

73'

Abdel Kader Yehia← Karim Mostafa

79'

Mostafa Osama← G. Ibitham

79'

S. Akinyoola← S. Jaziri

79'

Youssef Nabih← Mostafa Shalaby

Statistics

GhazlZamalek

Overview

3Corners7