Zamalek SC 0–1 Esperance Tunis: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Esperance Tunis

3/16/2021

CAF Champions League · Group D - 4Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zamalek SC51%

×Draw26%

Esperance Tunis22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchEsperance Tunis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.89

Zamalek SC

1.50

Esperance Tunis

0.89

Zamalek SC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

2.10

creates per match

1.02

0.75

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Zamalek SC

2.10

Esperance Tunis

1.02

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.75

Esperance Tunis

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Esperance Tunis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

78%

Zamalek SC or Esperance Tunis

74%

Draw or Esperance Tunis

49%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

26%

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

78%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

44%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

19%

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals

59%

Esperance Tunis 2+ goals

22%

Esperance Tunis 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

70%

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 2.10 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Esperance Tunis attack 1.02 + Zamalek SC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

51%

level

26%

Esperance Tunis scores more

22%

Zamalek SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff