ES Tunis 2–0 Zamalek SC: Result & Stats

ES Tunis

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Zamalek SC

2/25/2023

CAF Champions League · Group D - 3Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

ES Tunis48%

×Draw30%

Zamalek SC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES TunisExpected goals in this matchZamalek SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.70

ES Tunis

1.20

Zamalek SC

0.70

ES Tunis creates 71% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

0.95

0.45

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

ES Tunis

1.50

Zamalek SC

0.95

allows per match

ES Tunis

0.45

Zamalek SC

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Tunis+0.00on par

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Tunis ↓

Zamalek SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

ES Tunis or draw

78%

ES Tunis or Zamalek SC

70%

Draw or Zamalek SC

52%

Winning margin

ES Tunis wins by 2+

21%

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

ES Tunis 1+ goals

70%

ES Tunis 2+ goals

34%

ES Tunis 3+ goals

12%

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

50%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

16%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

ES Tunis (draw refunded)

69%

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Tunis attack 1.50 + Zamalek SC defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Zamalek SC attack 0.95 + ES Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ES Tunis scores more

48%

level

30%

Zamalek SC scores more

22%

ES Tunis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ES Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff