Zamalek SC 4–2 Enppi: Result & Stats

Zamalek SC

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Enppi

Youssef Obama 63', 60'

Naser Mansy 14', 7'

Mohamed El Nahass 90+2'

Ahmed Amin Aoufa 66'

8/5/2024

Premier League · Round 22Cairo International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zamalek SC51%

×Draw27%

Enppi22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zamalek SCExpected goals in this matchEnppi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.86

Zamalek SC

1.44

Enppi

0.86

Zamalek SC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 18 away

1.59

creates per match

1.06

0.67

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Zamalek SC

1.59

Enppi

1.06

allows per match

Zamalek SC

0.67

Enppi

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Enppi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zamalek SC ↓

Enppi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zamalek SC or draw

78%

Zamalek SC or Enppi

73%

Draw or Enppi

49%

Winning margin

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

25%

Enppi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

76%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

42%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

18%

Enppi 1+ goals

58%

Enppi 2+ goals

21%

Enppi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

69%

Enppi (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zamalek SC at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Enppi away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zamalek SC attack 1.59 + Enppi defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.44

Enppi attack 1.06 + Zamalek SC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zamalek SC scores more

51%

level

27%

Enppi scores more

22%

Zamalek SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Naser Mansy

Zamalek SC · F

9.3

Match Events

7'

Naser Mansy↳ Mostafa Shalaby

14'

Naser Mansy↳ Ahmed Abou El Fotouh

46'

Youssef Obama← S. Akinyoola

46'

Mostafa Shakshak← Marwan Dawoud

48'

Hamza Mathlouthi

60'

Youssef Obama↳ Naser Mansy

63'

Youssef Obama↳ Omar Gaber

64'

Ahmed Gamal← Mohamed Sherif

64'

Fathi El Sayed← Mohamed Naser

66'

Ahmed Amin Aoufa↳ Mostafa Shakshak

75'

Ammar Mansour← Naser Mansy

76'

Hazem Ali← Sayed Abdallah Sika

76'

Mohab Yasser← Mostafa Shalaby

76'

Khaled Ahmed← Abdallah Adel

76'

Mohamed El Nahass← Ahmed El Agouz

90'

Mohamed El Sayed← Seif Gaafar

90+2'

Mohamed El Nahass↳ Ali Fawzi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZamalekEnppi

Overview

58%Possession42%

12Total Shots22

3Corners9

11Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots22

6On Target6

3Off Target11

3Blocked5

11Inside Box16

1Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

481Total Passes316

410Accurate Passes253

85%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides4